Thu, Jan 14, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 4, New York Rangers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 310 | 111 | 012 | 433 |
| NYR | 09 | 012 | 03 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33NYIBrock NelsonPPGWGAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 3:52NYIAnders LeeAssists: Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 13:31NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Snap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 14:54NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Noah Dobson · Deflected, 0.14 xG4–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:49NYRJack Johnson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 8:33NYIJosh Bailey: Holding2 min
- P1 10:39NYRMika Zibanejad: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:23NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:04NYIMatt Martin: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:58NYRRyan Lindgren: Charging2 min
- P2 10:50NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:13NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00NYRBrendan Lemieux: Embellishment2 min
- P2 0:00NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:05NYRTony DeAngelo: Holding2 min
- P3 1:05NYRTony DeAngelo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:33NYRMika Zibanejad: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal9:01
xG 1.49–0.36 (80%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:01
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier8:06
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Pageau – Johnston – Bellows6:34
xG 0.19–0.30 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock10:13
xG 0.81–0.16 (83%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mayfield10:52
xG 1.07–0.45 (70%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Greene – Dobson9:31
xG 0.06–0.44 (13%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestLemieux – Rooney – Howden2:09
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Chytil – Lafrenière4:21
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich7:07
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Panarin2:14
xG 0.02–0.33 (6%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren8:59
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Trouba – DeAngelo2:04
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – DeAngelo7:07
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).