Sat, Jan 16, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 09 | 212 | 231 |
| DET | 05 | 19 | 37 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:44DETBobby RyanAssists: Filip Zadina · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 0:28CARVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Dougie Hamilton · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 0:46DETDylan LarkinAssists: Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 8:56CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 17:18DETRobby FabbriGWGAssists: Filip Zadina, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 18:04DETDylan LarkinENAssists: Patrik Nemeth · Backhand, 0.68 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:54DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:57DETMathias Brome: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:35CARNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
- P2 19:28DETDanny DeKeyser: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:30DETTyler Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:13CARBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:56DETLuke Glendening: Playing without a helmet2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Teravainen – Aho11:45
xG 0.71–0.04 (94%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Necas – Svechnikov5:42
xG 0.87–0.31 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Fast – Martinook – Svechnikov6:40
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Dzingel – McGinn – Geekie6:54
xG 0.16–0.06 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce15:17
xG 0.78–0.29 (73%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Slavin13:36
xG 0.63–0.39 (62%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce2:33
xG 0.01–0.02 (44%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Gagner – Namestnikov7:45
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Glendening – Erne – Brome7:45
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Fabbri – Zadina9:53
xG 0.17–0.67 (21%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin14:17
xG 0.46–1.28 (26%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stecher14:23
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Merrill – DeKeyser10:46
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Hronek15:12
xG 0.24–1.39 (15%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).