Sat, Jan 16, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 0, Calgary Flames 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 011 | 010 | 011 | 032 |
| CGY | 17 | 115 | 113 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:31CGYSean MonahanPPGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 16:12CGYDillon DubePPAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 15:16CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:16VANTanner Pearson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:43CGYSam Bennett: Holding2 min
- P1 15:22CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:49VANNils Hoglander: Interference2 min
- P2 4:33VANTyler Motte: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:24CGYNoah Hanifin: Holding2 min
- P2 13:02CGYSam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:20VANTyler Motte: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:08VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P3 14:15VANBrock Boeser: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Pearson – Horvat – Virtanen3:34
xG 0.08–0.03 (71%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander4:34
xG 0.02–0.06 (30%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Virtanen – Boeser – Pettersson3:42
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Boeser – Pettersson – Hoglander5:03
xG 0.16–0.25 (40%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Schmidt6:32
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hughes9:43
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Hughes3:01
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Bennett – Mangiapane10:55
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Simon6:51
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Tkachuk – Dube10:30
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Leivo – Monahan10:05
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNesterov – Välimäki13:10
xG 1.01–0.29 (78%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hanifin13:26
xG 0.27–0.04 (88%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Giordano – Andersson13:18
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).