Sat, Jan 16, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
San Jose Sharks 3, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 29 | 015 | 110 | 334 |
| ARI | 28 | 211 | 17 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34SJSRyan DonatoPPAssists: Timo Meier, Mario Ferraro · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 12:31ARIPhil KesselPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 14:41ARIBarrett HaytonAssists: Conor Garland, Nick Schmaltz · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 15:27SJSTimo MeierUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 5:13ARIPhil KesselAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Christian Dvorak · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 8:56ARIJakob ChychrunGWGAssists: Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 2:39ARIClayton KellerAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–5
- P3 19:09SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Timo Meier, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.25 xG3–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:50ARIConor Garland: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:37SJSEvander Kane: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:42SJSStefan Noesen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:42ARIChristian Dvorak: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:56ARIClayton Keller: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:26SJSEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:12SJSJake Middleton: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:12SJSEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:12ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:26ARIAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
- P3 19:00ARIJohan Larsson: Kneeing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Hertl – Leonard10:15
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Couture – Labanc – Meier9:19
xG 0.82–0.67 (55%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Nieto – Donato – Gregor7:29
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Marleau – Sorensen – Noesen6:43
xG 0.15–0.63 (19%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ferraro15:32
xG 1.02–0.71 (59%)attempts 23–13goals 0–0
- Burns – Middleton2:24
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson13:02
xG 0.30–0.56 (35%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Pitlick – Keller8:45
xG 0.70–0.19 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Kessel – Dvorak – Caggiula9:27
xG 0.91–0.72 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Schmaltz – Garland – Hayton9:00
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Larsson – Fischer – Crouse7:27
xG 0.13–0.44 (23%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson12:14
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun12:06
xG 1.11–0.92 (55%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle11:53
xG 0.52–0.40 (56%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).