Mon, Jan 18, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 2, Calgary Flames 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 116 | 03 | 18 | 227 |
| CGY | 04 | 320 | 28 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:17VANJake VirtanenAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 12:05CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 13:30CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Milan Lucic, Josh Leivo · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 19:58CGYElias LindholmPPGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.27 xG1–3
- P3 6:40CGYMark GiordanoPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 13:15VANTyler MyersSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 19:05CGYRasmus AnderssonENAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:32CGYMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:16CGYJuuso Välimäki: Holding2 min
- P1 19:55VANBrock Boeser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:55CGYMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:07VANElias Pettersson: Holding2 min
- P2 15:18VANAdam Gaudette: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:14VANElias Pettersson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:57VANTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:59VANAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:29VANQuinn Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:56CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Sutter – Beagle – Motte5:52
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander8:57
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Roussel – Virtanen – Gaudette5:23
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson10:26
xG 0.21–0.76 (22%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Schmidt4:14
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes2:55
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Juolevi6:08
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Backlund – Leivo4:05
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Simon3:42
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Tkachuk – Dube3:29
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Leivo – Monahan2:20
xG 0.19–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Andersson8:15
xG 0.43–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Nesterov – Välimäki9:44
xG 0.58–0.18 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Tanev – Hanifin8:29
xG 0.42–0.11 (80%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).