Tue, Jan 19, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 311 | 17 | 07 | 01 | 426 |
| PIT | 15 | 310 | 012 | 13 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:55WSHLars EllerAssists: T.J. Oshie, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 16:52PITColton SceviourAssists: Teddy Blueger, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P1 16:58WSHTom WilsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 19:43WSHTom WilsonAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 5:45PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
- P2 8:16WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Daniel Sprong, Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P2 15:07PITTeddy BluegerSHAssists: Casey DeSmith · Backhand, 0.00 xG4–3
- P2 17:15PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 1:11PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.38 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:08WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:47WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:28PITJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:34PITChad Ruhwedel: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:39WSHT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Vrana – Sprong10:50
xG 1.06–0.21 (84%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Oshie – Eller – Panik12:11
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway8:04
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson14:26
xG 0.35–0.99 (26%)attempts 8–16goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Jensen13:45
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dillon15:05
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Carlson – Orlov15:28
xG 0.66–0.60 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Rodrigues14:01
xG 1.20–0.23 (84%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Sceviour – Blueger – Kapanen6:58
xG 0.69–0.04 (94%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Rust – Jankowski – McCann5:33
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust5:27
xG 0.01–0.14 (7%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin21:28
xG 1.21–0.20 (86%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Ruhwedel – Riikola6:17
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Ruhwedel – Marino10:18
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).