Tue, Jan 19, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 08 | 18 | 18 | 00 | 224 |
| DET | 07 | 210 | 08 | 12 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:38CBJBoone JennerAssists: Max Domi, David Savard · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:37DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 14:17DETBobby RyanAssists: Jon Merrill, Frans Nielsen · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 5:04CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Dean Kukan, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 0:15DETTyler BertuzziGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin · Deflected, 0.25 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 1:52CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:43DETMarc Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:04DETBobby Ryan: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Texier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Robinson – Foudy8:28
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Grigorenko – Dubois – Bemstrom6:52
xG 0.28–0.07 (79%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Jenner – Domi – Bemstrom3:40
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Dubois3:49
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Kukan14:20
xG 0.49–0.15 (77%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Savard – Gavrikov17:03
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski19:30
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 13–21goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Ryan – Mantha – Rasmussen7:30
xG 0.19–0.22 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Glendening – Bertuzzi – Brome9:18
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Larkin – Zadina12:11
xG 0.16–0.26 (37%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Filppula – Nielsen – Gagner8:27
xG 0.03–0.28 (9%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Hronek17:05
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Merrill3:29
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Merrill – DeKeyser13:21
xG 0.16–0.22 (41%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).