Tue, Mar 2, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 210 | 111 | 17 | 428 |
| NSH | 08 | 013 | 217 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:36CARSebastian AhoAssists: Martin Necas · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 16:13CARVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jordan Staal · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 4:48CARSteven LorentzGWGAssists: Jordan Martinook, Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 6:00NSHCalle JarnkrokPPAssists: Nick Cousins, Mattias Ekholm · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 8:17NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Dante Fabbro, Erik Haula · Deflected, 0.00 xG3–2
- P3 19:46CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Jordan Staal, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.63 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:15CARNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:24NSHMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:24CARCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:07NSHDante Fabbro: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 19:38CARNino Niederreiter: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:36NSHDante Fabbro: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:46CARBrett Pesce: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:47NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Foegele – Svechnikov12:21
xG 0.77–0.48 (61%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Fast – Aho10:54
xG 0.45–0.22 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Martinook – Paquette – Lorentz6:23
xG 0.23–0.37 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Trocheck – McGinn – Necas13:53
xG 0.37–0.63 (37%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin16:55
xG 1.05–0.44 (70%)attempts 22–16goals 1–0
- Pesce – Fleury12:20
xG 0.37–0.43 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Skjei – Bean10:16
xG 0.32–0.43 (43%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Forsberg – Tolvanen12:02
xG 0.77–0.21 (78%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Haula – Cousins – Arvidsson9:34
xG 0.13–0.40 (25%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Sissons – Jeannot – Olivier6:14
xG 0.04–0.32 (12%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Duchene – Jarnkrok – Grimaldi9:08
xG 0.27–0.56 (32%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro10:52
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Josi – Carrier5:13
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro6:34
xG 0.59–0.65 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).