Tue, Jan 19, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 18 | 110 | 11 | 428 |
| OTT | 218 | 114 | 08 | 01 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:41OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:31OTTChris TierneyAssists: Connor Brown, Nikita Zaitsev · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 18:09WPGAdam LowryAssists: Neal Pionk, Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 11:47OTTAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Mike Reilly, Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 16:12WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 18:43WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.28 xG3–3
- OT 2:20WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Andrew Copp, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.25 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:35WPGDerek Forbort: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 6:55OTTArtem Anisimov: Holding2 min
- P1 11:44OTTAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:42WPGLogan Stanley: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:42OTTBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:18WPGSami Niku: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:32WPGSami Niku: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 15:45OTTAustin Watson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:22WPGJansen Harkins: Holding2 min
- P3 6:46OTTChris Tierney: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor9:56
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton3:56
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Harkins3:23
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers3:25
xG 0.03–0.29 (8%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Beaulieu – Pionk2:32
xG 0.03–0.04 (42%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Forbort – Morrissey2:07
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Niku8:59
xG 0.41–0.53 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk7:44
xG 1.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Stepan – Galchenyuk6:10
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tierney – Brown – Paul9:12
xG 0.13–0.18 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Watson – Paquette2:36
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zaitsev7:53
xG 1.02–0.02 (98%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Reilly – Brown2:13
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Zaitsev4:39
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).