Wed, Jan 20, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Arizona Coyotes 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 05 | 18 | 110 | 223 |
| VGK | 29 | 112 | 28 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:18VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Alec Martinez, Alex Tuch · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 8:33VGKAlex PietrangeloAssists: Alex Tuch, Keegan Kolesar · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 10:39VGKMark StoneGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–3
- P2 11:52ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Drake Caggiula · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 5:01VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–4
- P3 6:14VGKAlex TuchPPAssists: Mark Stone, Alex Pietrangelo · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–5
- P3 7:38ARIPhil KesselAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Christian Dvorak · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:26ARITyler Pitlick: Interference2 min
- P2 2:08ARIDrake Caggiula: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:52VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P2 15:17ARIConor Garland: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:48VGKJonathan Marchessault: Boarding2 min
- P3 3:11VGKTomas Nosek: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:30ARIDrake Caggiula: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:49ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:50ARIJason Demers: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:53VGKAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:01ARIKyle Capobianco: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Hayden – Fischer7:15
xG 0.48–0.03 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – Dvorak – Crouse7:59
xG 0.69–0.33 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 1–2
- Schmaltz – Garland – Caggiula7:51
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Brassard – Pitlick – Keller7:57
xG 0.13–0.37 (26%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun13:45
xG 1.52–0.41 (79%)attempts 21–14goals 2–1
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle7:49
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Demers – Capobianco11:03
xG 0.21–0.68 (24%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek8:52
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson8:41
xG 0.43–0.58 (43%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Tuch – Kolesar – Roy7:31
xG 0.14–0.37 (27%)attempts 6–6goals 2–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault7:02
xG 0.23–0.82 (22%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud8:53
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Martinez – Whitecloud2:21
xG 0.27–0.10 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – McNabb9:52
xG 0.32–0.58 (36%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).