Thu, Jan 21, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 214 | 011 | 12 | 337 |
| CBJ | 110 | 06 | 17 | 02 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Max Domi · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 16:33TBLBlake ColemanAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 17:56TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 0:47CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Cam Atkinson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 1:56TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.28 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P2 7:30TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:40TBLJan Rutta: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:07CBJAlexandre Texier: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:52TBLBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:35TBLLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:35CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:09TBLJan Rutta: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Point15:18
xG 1.27–0.54 (70%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Cirelli12:06
xG 0.59–0.34 (64%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde10:26
xG 0.63–0.41 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Maroon – Joseph – Stephens6:22
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak16:33
xG 1.14–0.31 (79%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Hedman – Rutta10:44
xG 0.76–0.61 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Schenn – Sergachev7:01
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Bjorkstrand – Foudy2:19
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Domi – Foudy7:29
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Grigorenko – Domi2:37
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Nash – Bemstrom – Robinson5:07
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Savard – Gavrikov17:03
xG 0.73–0.91 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 0–2
- Del Zotto – Kukan10:30
xG 0.21–0.52 (29%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski20:35
xG 0.63–1.29 (33%)attempts 20–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).