Fri, Jan 22, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 3, Washington Capitals 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 214 | 06 | 00 | 0 | 327 |
| WSH | 111 | 210 | 07 | 04 | 1 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:33BUFEric StaalAssists: Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 16:18WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Tom Wilson, Brenden Dillon · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 4:14WSHNic DowdAssists: Jakub Vrana, John Carlson · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 10:43BUFDylan CozensUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 13:07WSHJakub VranaAssists: Zdeno Chara, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P2 13:49BUFRiley SheahanAssists: Jeff Skinner, Curtis Lazar · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 2. BUF Jack Eichel stopped
- 3. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 4. BUF Taylor Hall stopped
- 5. WSH Jakub Vrana stopped
- 6. BUF Dylan Cozens stopped
- 7. WSH John Carlson scored
- 8. BUF Sam Reinhart stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:03WSHConor Sheary: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:49BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:49WSHJakub Vrana: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:53WSHT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:50BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHall – Reinhart – Eichel16:28
xG 0.67–0.08 (89%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Skinner – Lazar8:52
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Eakin – Rieder – Cozens10:28
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Staal – Olofsson – Thompson6:26
xG 0.36–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen15:29
xG 0.89–0.20 (82%)attempts 17–9goals 3–1
- Miller – Dahlin7:26
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Miller – McCabe4:21
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Wilson – Vrana9:39
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana4:05
xG 0.17–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Panik – Sprong2:14
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Pinho – Sheary – Sprong6:29
xG 0.08–0.24 (26%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Siegenthaler15:26
xG 0.35–0.18 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Carlson – Dillon18:47
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Chara – Jensen15:55
xG 0.17–1.05 (14%)attempts 6–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).