Fri, Jan 22, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 011 | 110 | 111 | 232 |
| TOR | 012 | 29 | 28 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:12EDMLeon DraisaitlSHAssists: Kailer Yamamoto · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 5:55TORAdam BrooksPPAssists: Jason Spezza, TJ Brodie · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 11:16TORJimmy VeseyAssists: William Nylander, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 0:50EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ethan Bear, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 11:46TORJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:59TORMitch MarnerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:45TORPierre Engvall: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:07EDMKyle Turris: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:14TORJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:30EDMDevin Shore: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kerfoot won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid13:49
xG 0.67–0.31 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Turris – Ennis – Puljujarvi7:34
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Neal – Archibald – Shore4:54
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun11:02
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Koekkoek9:06
xG 0.40–0.14 (75%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Nurse – Bear14:00
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Russell – Barrie14:18
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestVesey – Kerfoot – Nylander8:55
xG 0.29–0.04 (89%)attempts 15–2goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Engvall – Mikheyev5:50
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Brooks – Barabanov4:38
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner12:47
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl14:09
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Dermott8:52
xG 0.20–0.21 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly11:24
xG 0.22–0.61 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).