Sat, Jan 23, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 214 | 010 | 08 | 232 |
| CBJ | 39 | 08 | 211 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Mitchell Stephens, Alexander Volkov · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 4:27CBJNick FolignoAssists: Cam Atkinson, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 10:03CBJMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Kevin Stenlund, Nathan Gerbe · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–2
- P1 19:01CBJVladislav GavrikovGWGAssists: Liam Foudy, Eric Robinson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P1 19:46TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Brayden Point, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.29 xG2–3
- P3 6:34CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Alexandre Texier, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 18:12CBJEric RobinsonENAssists: Riley Nash, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:16CBJNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:04TBLJan Rutta: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:52CBJMikhail Grigorenko: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:09TBLMikhail Sergachev: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:55CBJSeth Jones: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Cirelli2:52
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Gourde – Joseph10:34
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Point13:21
xG 0.36–0.53 (40%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Killorn – Johnson – Cirelli10:24
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Foote3:12
xG 0.25–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Rutta4:01
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak2:49
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Domi9:59
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Nash – Robinson – Foudy11:52
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Grigorenko – Stenlund9:28
xG 0.27–0.09 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Jenner – Bjorkstrand – Texier15:52
xG 0.55–0.72 (44%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski17:51
xG 0.69–0.42 (62%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Savard – Gavrikov17:22
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- Del Zotto – Kukan14:01
xG 0.54–0.68 (44%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).