Sun, Jan 24, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Arizona Coyotes 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 010 | 09 | 18 | 127 |
| ARI | 04 | 07 | 05 | 016 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 19:17VGKWilliam KarlssonGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:10VGKAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:13VGKKeegan Kolesar: Interference bench2 min
- P2 4:22ARIConor Garland: Interference2 min
- P2 16:53ARITyler Pitlick: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:00
xG 1.17–0.13 (90%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Tuch – Kolesar – Roy6:37
xG 0.29–0.01 (97%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek7:21
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson13:43
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Theodore15:53
xG 1.29–0.19 (87%)attempts 24–13goals 1–0
- Hague – Whitecloud13:13
xG 0.70–0.25 (74%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – McNabb14:52
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Larsson – Fischer – Crouse10:24
xG 0.37–0.57 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Brassard – Pitlick – Dvorak10:48
xG 0.07–0.39 (15%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Garland – Caggiula12:14
xG 0.06–0.47 (11%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Kessel – Keller – Hayton9:02
xG 0.18–0.67 (21%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oesterle – Soderstrom9:02
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Demers – Oesterle2:01
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun18:26
xG 0.25–0.72 (26%)attempts 13–27goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).