Sat, Jan 30, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
St. Louis Blues 6, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 311 | 112 | 27 | 630 |
| ANA | 19 | 010 | 05 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:20STLJordan KyrouAssists: Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.29 xG1–0
- P1 0:57STLZachary SanfordGWGAssists: David Perron, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P1 2:06STLJordan KyrouAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P1 16:59ANAMax JonesAssists: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 7:30STLDavid PerronAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 2:59STLKyle CliffordAssists: Oskar Sundqvist · Snap, 0.14 xG5–1
- P3 5:17STLVince DunnPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:31ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:31STLKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:00ANARickard Rakell: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:16STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:06STLVince Dunn: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:22ANASam Steel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:51STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:53ANAMax Jones: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:53STLNiko Mikkola: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Sanford9:07
xG 0.96–0.23 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Hoffman – Blais – Thomas8:51
xG 0.95–0.24 (80%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Kyrou10:40
xG 0.51–0.21 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Clifford – Sundqvist – Barbashev9:58
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug11:13
xG 1.50–0.20 (88%)attempts 15–8goals 3–0
- Faulk – Dunn2:09
xG 0.10–0.05 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Faulk – Mikkola2:00
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Steel – Lundeström6:48
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Comtois2:18
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Henrique – Heinen – Comtois5:13
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Jones9:45
xG 0.61–0.85 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Fowler4:19
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindholm2:55
xG 0.12–0.07 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindholm10:34
xG 0.59–0.94 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).