Sun, Jan 31, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 5, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 211 | 114 | 212 | 537 |
| BUF | 09 | 215 | 19 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:20NJDMichael McLeodAssists: P.K. Subban, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 19:43NJDAndreas JohnssonAssists: Jesper Bratt, Ty Smith · Deflected, 0.29 xG2–0
- P2 14:11BUFCurtis LazarAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jake McCabe · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 15:23BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Victor Olofsson, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 19:59NJDMiles WoodAssists: Janne Kuokkanen · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 3:53BUFRasmus RistolainenPPAssists: Victor Olofsson, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–3
- P3 10:40NJDMichael McLeodGWGAssists: Miles Wood, Nathan Bastian · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 19:52NJDMiles WoodENAssists: Pavel Zacha, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.52 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:28NJDJanne Kuokkanen: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:35BUFMatt Irwin: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:40NJDDmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:07NJDTy Smith: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:10BUFBrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:19NJDAndreas Johnsson: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min · PPG
- P3 7:50BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Bratt – Hughes10:52
xG 1.94–0.11 (94%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod10:30
xG 1.54–0.62 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Gusev – Maltsev – Sharangovich8:21
xG 0.54–0.37 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Zacha – Kuokkanen – Boqvist8:22
xG 0.33–0.91 (26%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Smith8:29
xG 1.47–0.03 (98%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Severson3:08
xG 1.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Tennyson10:54
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHall – Olofsson – Eichel12:55
xG 1.59–1.43 (53%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Sheahan – Lazar – Mittelstadt7:46
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Staal – Skinner – Cozens9:39
xG 0.13–1.17 (10%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Okposo – Eakin – Rieder8:22
xG 0.09–1.32 (7%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Dahlin8:46
xG 0.73–0.58 (56%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Montour2:07
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Irwin – Miller2:33
xG 0.08–0.39 (17%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).