Sun, Jan 31, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Dallas Stars 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 03 | 19 | 212 | 05 | 1 | 329 |
| CAR | 112 | 115 | 110 | 03 | 2 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Sebastian Aho · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 7:47DALJamie OleksiakAssists: Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 16:32CARBrock McGinnSHAssists: Jordan Staal, Brady Skjei · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 7:38DALAndrew CoglianoAssists: Blake Comeau, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 12:00DALJamie BennAssists: Alexander Radulov, Anton Khudobin · Deflected, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 17:25CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Brett Pesce · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CAR Dougie Hamilton scored
- 2. DAL Joe Pavelski stopped
- 3. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 4. DAL Alexander Radulov scored
- 5. CAR Vincent Trocheck scored
- 6. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:34DALEsa Lindell: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 8:32CARNino Niederreiter: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:53DALTanner Kero: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:30DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min
- P2 5:24DALMiro Heiskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 8:37CARDrew Shore: Holding2 min
- P2 15:02CARDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
- P3 4:54CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:03DALAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:13CARDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dellandrea won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Kero – Caamano3:13
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Faksa – Dellandrea2:40
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa3:18
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Radulov – Benn – Hintz8:53
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Hanley7:57
xG 0.75–0.27 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen10:32
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 2–1
- Klingberg – Lindell15:22
xG 0.60–0.80 (43%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Trocheck – Necas9:30
xG 0.52–0.17 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Staal – Dzingel – Lorentz5:13
xG 0.37–0.06 (87%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Aho – Svechnikov3:51
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- McGinn – Aho – Svechnikov5:34
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Bean10:31
xG 0.77–0.67 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Pesce12:26
xG 0.71–0.76 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce3:52
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).