Sun, Jan 31, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 218 | 16 | 330 |
| DET | 113 | 09 | 112 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12DETDylan LarkinAssists: Givani Smith · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 2:03FLAPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 15:04FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 8:09FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Markus Nutivaara · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 18:12DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Bobby Ryan, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:28FLACarter Verhaeghe: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:12FLAKeith Yandle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:41DETMarc Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:09DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:25DETMichael Rasmussen: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:25FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:25DETMichael Rasmussen: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:23FLAMarkus Nutivaara: Interference2 min
- P2 14:38DETDarren Helm: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVatrano – Acciari – Luostarinen7:25
xG 0.32–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Lammikko – Acciari – Heponiemi2:33
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov10:07
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg8:30
xG 0.37–0.46 (45%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad14:01
xG 0.56–0.34 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Yandle – Gudas10:58
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gudas – Weegar2:42
xG 0.09–0.02 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Mantha – Hirose6:13
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Larkin – Brome7:50
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Mantha – Larkin2:34
xG 0.02–0.07 (25%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Rasmussen4:51
xG 0.14–0.18 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDjoos – DeKeyser9:30
xG 0.59–0.40 (59%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Hronek13:31
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Hronek2:41
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).