Sun, Jan 31, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 5, Edmonton Oilers 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 314 | 012 | 212 | 538 |
| EDM | 512 | 314 | 05 | 831 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:08EDMDominik KahunAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 4:15EDMJames NealPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 5:38OTTColin WhiteAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P1 7:20EDMTyson BarriePPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P1 9:42EDMJames NealAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P1 13:42EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.19 xG1–5
- P1 16:06OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Connor Brown, Artem Zub · Snap, 0.08 xG2–5
- P1 17:38OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Mike Reilly, Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.05 xG3–5
- P2 0:42EDMConnor McDavidPPGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–6
- P2 11:31EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.07 xG3–7
- P2 19:43EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.09 xG3–8
- P3 8:08OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Colin White, Josh Norris · Snap, 0.08 xG4–8
- P3 8:55OTTAustin WatsonAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–8
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:50OTTMike Reilly: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 6:23OTTDrake Batherson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:16OTTErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 16:48EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:26OTTBrady Tkachuk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:13EDMAdam Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:51EDMCaleb Jones: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:22OTTDrake Batherson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:24EDMJosh Archibald: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:58EDMAlex Chiasson: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Norris – Tkachuk9:00
xG 1.15–0.30 (79%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Dadonov – Paul – White10:01
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Tierney – Batherson – Stützle7:58
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Stepan – Watson – Paquette7:47
xG 0.17–0.29 (38%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Gudbranson13:55
xG 1.48–0.75 (66%)attempts 27–9goals 2–1
- Reilly – Zaitsev12:22
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–2
- Brown – Zub12:22
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Archibald – Haas5:54
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun11:37
xG 0.40–0.65 (38%)attempts 8–14goals 2–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi9:55
xG 0.45–0.71 (39%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
- Neal – Turris – Kassian11:08
xG 0.40–0.82 (33%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Lagesson8:49
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Russell – Jones3:56
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Larsson – Jones6:14
xG 0.09–0.29 (23%)attempts 2–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).