Mon, Feb 1, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Calgary Flames 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 18 | 212 | 03 | 2 | 428 |
| WPG | 28 | 06 | 112 | 02 | 1 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:31WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 13:46WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 0:07CGYChris TanevAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–2
- P3 6:54CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Elias Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 13:45CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Noah Hanifin, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 18:10WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Neal Pionk, Blake Wheeler · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
- 2. CGY Sean Monahan scored
- 3. WPG Kyle Connor scored
- 4. CGY Matthew Tkachuk stopped
- 5. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 6. CGY Josh Leivo stopped
- 7. WPG Mathieu Perreault stopped
- 8. CGY Johnny Gaudreau scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:46CGYNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:19CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:15WPGDylan DeMelo: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:05CGYDillon Dube: Elbowing2 min
- P3 3:54CGYDillon Dube: Holding2 min
- P3 8:50WPGLogan Stanley: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Leivo – Bennett6:54
xG 0.59–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk2:36
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Lucic – Nordstrom – Ryan5:41
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Lucic – Leivo – Lindholm3:10
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin15:43
xG 1.90–0.23 (89%)attempts 22–10goals 2–0
- Nesterov – Välimäki14:01
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Appleton9:11
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Lewis – Harkins – Vesalainen5:24
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Copp – Ehlers13:44
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stastny – Connor11:00
xG 0.21–1.07 (16%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Pionk14:37
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Beaulieu – Pionk2:36
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey12:28
xG 0.61–0.80 (43%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).