Tue, Feb 2, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Arizona Coyotes 3, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 111 | 19 | 115 | 335 |
| STL | 111 | 212 | 16 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:15ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Drake Caggiula · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:25STLMike HoffmanAssists: Colton Parayko, Sammy Blais · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 3:54STLJustin FaulkAssists: Sammy Blais, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 6:25ARIChristian DvorakPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 11:45STLVince DunnAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 1:44STLRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 17:21ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Conor Garland, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:35ARIClayton Keller: Interference2 min
- P1 17:47ARIJordan Oesterle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:20STLIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:50STLMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:08ARIPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:31ARIDrake Caggiula: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:25STLDavid Perron: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barbashev won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Garland – Keller11:29
xG 0.42–0.16 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Dvorak – Caggiula9:01
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Hunt3:09
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Hayton5:50
xG 0.14–0.49 (22%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Chychrun2:17
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Gross11:08
xG 0.63–0.61 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Demers – Oesterle16:04
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Kyrou11:39
xG 0.56–0.11 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford9:17
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Clifford – Sundqvist – Barbashev7:57
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Blais – Thomas8:53
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Mikkola3:12
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Dunn2:46
xG 0.32–0.09 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug16:11
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).