Wed, Feb 3, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 17 | 02 | 116 |
| TBL | 39 | 210 | 08 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 3:57TBLAnthony CirelliGWGAssists: Luke Schenn, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 4:54TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 7:25TBLBrayden PointAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P2 9:49DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Christian Djoos · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 11:32TBLAlex KillornAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Blake Coleman · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:22DETAnthony Mantha: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:47TBLOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:08TBLBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00DETSam Gagner: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:09TBLPatrick Maroon: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:09DETValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:15TBLLuke Schenn: Holding2 min
- P3 2:52DETAnthony Mantha: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Glendening – Erne7:54
xG 0.36–0.02 (94%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Mantha – Hirose8:23
xG 0.15–0.22 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Filppula – Nielsen – Gagner7:56
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Ryan – Larkin – Fabbri9:46
xG 0.20–0.53 (28%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Staal – Stecher11:55
xG 0.38–0.56 (40%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Merrill – Djoos12:43
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Hronek12:53
xG 0.23–0.60 (28%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Goodrow – Joseph2:30
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Maroon – Gourde – Joseph2:32
xG 0.18–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Point9:05
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde7:36
xG 0.23–0.10 (68%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak10:50
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Foote7:16
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- Hedman – Rutta7:10
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).