Tue, Apr 20, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 05 | 014 | 611 | 630 |
| PIT | 413 | 28 | 111 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:49PITMike MathesonAssists: Cody Ceci, Jared McCann · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 8:04PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 8:49PITBrian DumoulinAssists: Tristan Jarry · Backhand, 0.00 xG0–3
- P1 17:56PITJeff CarterAssists: Jared McCann, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 1:12PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–5
- P2 15:18PITEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Jason Zucker, John Marino · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–6
- P3 0:41NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Nick Merkley, Will Butcher · Snap, 0.16 xG1–6
- P3 5:14NJDYegor SharangovichSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–6
- P3 8:48NJDNathan BastianAssists: Will Butcher, Miles Wood · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–6
- P3 11:15PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.14 xG3–7
- P3 12:52NJDJack HughesAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Janne Kuokkanen · Snap, 0.08 xG4–7
- P3 13:56NJDNolan FooteAssists: Nick Merkley, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–7
- P3 19:19NJDAndreas JohnssonAssists: Miles Wood, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:41PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:03PITBrian Dumoulin: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:23NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:50PITKris Letang: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:31PITTristan Jarry: Interference2 min
- P3 4:50NJDNathan Bastian: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – McLeod – Studenic2:48
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod5:20
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Wood – Bastian – Hischier5:26
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Kuokkanen – Sharangovich – Hughes11:57
xG 0.49–0.41 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Butcher11:27
xG 0.82–0.65 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 1–2
- Tennyson – Siegenthaler8:37
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Severson – Siegenthaler5:35
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel16:50
xG 0.86–0.47 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Blueger – Rodrigues – Aston-Reese11:47
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 2–2
- Sceviour – Jankowski – Lafferty5:28
xG 0.03–0.18 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Zucker – McCann11:04
xG 0.59–0.79 (43%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin16:28
xG 0.89–0.67 (57%)attempts 16–10goals 3–2
- Matheson – Ceci12:31
xG 0.31–0.35 (48%)attempts 4–11goals 2–1
- Pettersson – Marino12:46
xG 0.55–0.61 (47%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).