Thu, Feb 4, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 15 | 217 | 112 | 434 |
| CHI | 313 | 09 | 313 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15CARSebastian AhoAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 3:17CHIMattias JanmarkPPAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Philipp Kurashev · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 14:43CHIDominik KubalikPPAssists: Nicolas Beaudin, Mattias Janmark · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 19:53CHIAndrew ShawPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Dominik Kubalik · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 0:42CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Martin Necas, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 0:50CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 2:41CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Carl Soderberg · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 5:25CARBrock McGinnAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brett Pesce · Snap, 0.09 xG4–4
- P3 12:22CHIAlex DeBrincatGWGAssists: Pius Suter, Patrick Kane · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 19:47CHIAlex DeBrincatENAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:37CARHaydn Fleury: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:23CHIDominik Kubalik: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:18CARMartin Necas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:34CARSteven Lorentz: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 18:16CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:36CHIDominik Kubalik: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:45CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:07CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:07CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Aho – Svechnikov10:17
xG 1.15–0.64 (64%)attempts 19–9goals 3–1
- Dzingel – Martinook – Lorentz5:08
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Necas11:18
xG 0.59–0.68 (46%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Martinook – Foegele – Lorentz2:31
xG 0.02–0.11 (17%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin15:23
xG 1.12–0.66 (63%)attempts 25–16goals 3–0
- Skjei – Pesce12:49
xG 0.74–0.65 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Gardiner – Fleury9:30
xG 0.48–0.54 (47%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – Strome – DeBrincat8:44
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Highmore – Kampf – Suter2:47
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Shaw – Hagel2:15
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Shaw – Highmore – Kampf3:22
xG 0.03–0.33 (9%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Murphy12:01
xG 1.06–0.85 (56%)attempts 15–13goals 1–3
- Zadorov – Beaudin9:48
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Keith – Murphy3:11
xG 0.05–0.22 (20%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).