Tue, Mar 16, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Arizona Coyotes 0, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 011 | 03 | 017 | 031 |
| MIN | 19 | 013 | 24 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37MINRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Jordan Greenway, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 2:07MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Carson Soucy, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 13:57MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Ryan Suter, Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.01 xG0–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:48MINCarson Soucy: Elbowing5 min
- P1 15:58MINCarson Soucy: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:58ARILawson Crouse: Instigator2 min
- P1 15:58ARILawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:58ARILawson Crouse: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 15:58ARILawson Crouse: Aggressor10 min
- P2 6:19MINJordan Greenway: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 15:24ARIIlya Lyubushkin: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:26MINJonas Brodin: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:17MINJordan Greenway: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:00ARIJason Demers: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Schmaltz – Keller6:12
xG 0.66–0.55 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Kessel – Dvorak – Garland2:21
xG 0.15–0.06 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – Schmaltz – Keller2:02
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Larsson – Fasching – Fischer5:12
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun16:50
xG 0.93–0.74 (56%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Hjalmarsson – Lyubushkin9:09
xG 0.47–0.32 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson11:57
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov10:02
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Parise – Bjugstad – Eriksson Ek7:17
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hartman – Fiala – Greenway10:37
xG 0.43–0.66 (39%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
- Bonino – Johnson – Sturm6:30
xG 0.13–0.77 (15%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Soucy11:21
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Cole – Brodin2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon12:12
xG 0.82–1.01 (45%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).