Wed, Apr 14, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Arizona Coyotes 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 113 | 18 | 230 |
| MIN | 17 | 29 | 26 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:31MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 2:16ARIJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:28MINZach PariseAssists: Nick Bonino, Nico Sturm · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 19:14MINNick BoninoPPGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 4:30MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 5:50MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Zach Parise, Nick Bonino · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 8:36ARIPhil KesselAssists: Dryden Hunt, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:00ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:14MINKevin Fiala: Holding2 min
- P2 1:14MINJonas Brodin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 17:48ARITyler Pitlick: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:40MINMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:00ARIJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:56MINMarcus Foligno: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Larsson – Hunt10:30
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Bunting – Garland8:39
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Dvorak – Crouse8:14
xG 0.10–0.18 (37%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Brassard – Fischer – Keller6:24
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hjalmarsson – Demers12:00
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin16:01
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun17:12
xG 0.47–0.85 (36%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:22
xG 0.36–0.10 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov10:17
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Parise – Bonino – Sturm9:38
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Fiala9:36
xG 0.13–0.33 (29%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba17:47
xG 0.55–0.18 (76%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Cole – Soucy14:10
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon14:45
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).