Tue, Feb 9, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Nashville Predators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 311 | 010 | 39 | 630 |
| NSH | 111 | 010 | 012 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Sean Malone, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:28TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Brayden Point, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 12:31TBLOndrej PalatPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P1 14:03TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 6:40TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.21 xG4–1
- P3 14:34TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–1
- P3 16:20TBLMathieu JosephPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Alexander Volkov · Deflected, 0.15 xG6–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:50TBLRyan McDonagh: Boarding2 min
- P1 4:51NSHRyan Ellis: Interference2 min
- P1 8:37TBLJan Rutta: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:21TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:21NSHMichael McCarron: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:21NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:51NSHSean Malone: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:24TBLMathieu Joseph: Interference2 min
- P2 6:06TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:41NSHRyan Ellis: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 14:34NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Point9:29
xG 0.81–0.16 (83%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Maroon – Joseph – Volkov9:26
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Cirelli8:51
xG 0.36–0.47 (44%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde11:17
xG 0.37–0.64 (37%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev2:21
xG 0.85–0.06 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Schenn – Sergachev10:27
xG 0.26–0.33 (45%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Hedman – Rutta11:01
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Grimaldi – Malone8:05
xG 0.26–0.03 (90%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Forsberg – Sissons – Arvidsson9:38
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Duchene – Granlund – Kunin9:51
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- McCarron – Trenin – Olivier4:47
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis13:56
xG 0.37–0.20 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro5:03
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro5:42
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).