Tue, Feb 9, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 010 | 29 | 08 | 227 |
| CGY | 011 | 27 | 111 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:23WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 5:31CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Milan Lucic · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 13:34CGYByron FroeseAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Josh Leivo · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 15:45WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Mark Scheifele, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 18:18CGYElias LindholmPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:53WPGDerek Forbort: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:31CGYByron Froese: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:47CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:25WPGNathan Beaulieu: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Lewis – Perreault – Lowry5:31
xG 0.04–0.10 (29%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Perreault – Lowry – Appleton2:43
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Lewis – Connor – Dubois2:51
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Connor – Appleton – Dubois8:21
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Stanley8:42
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Forbort – Pionk18:27
xG 0.27–0.57 (33%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Morrissey18:40
xG 0.25–0.69 (26%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Backlund – Mangiapane11:54
xG 1.01–0.08 (93%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett14:13
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Tkachuk – Dube12:56
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Froese – Nordstrom – Leivo5:56
xG 0.10–0.02 (81%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Andersson15:54
xG 0.86–0.15 (85%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hanifin17:18
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Nesterov – Välimäki15:40
xG 0.49–0.20 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).