Thu, Feb 11, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 114 | 19 | 02 | 1 | 435 |
| NYI | 210 | 06 | 18 | 05 | 0 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:39NYICasey CizikasAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 11:47PITBryan RustAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 16:40NYIJean-Gabriel PageauPPAssists: Nick Leddy, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
- P2 7:02PITZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Teddy Blueger, Brandon Tanev · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 13:35NYIMathew BarzalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:42PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Kris Letang, Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. PIT Jake Guentzel stopped
- 3. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 5. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
Penalties (2)
- P1 15:08PITCody Ceci: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 8:43NYIJordan Eberle: Illegal equipment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese11:25
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Jankowski – O'Connor5:44
xG 0.14–0.33 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel16:32
xG 0.48–0.68 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Malkin – Zucker – Kapanen15:07
xG 0.32–0.85 (27%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Ruhwedel12:17
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Letang – Joseph18:23
xG 0.59–0.83 (42%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Matheson – Marino18:35
xG 0.43–0.88 (33%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Nelson – Dal Colle11:40
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal13:14
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:28
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Komarov – Pageau – Wahlstrom7:55
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Mayfield17:23
xG 1.02–0.48 (68%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock18:36
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Leddy – Dobson2:03
xG 0.04–0.08 (36%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).