Thu, Feb 11, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 19 | 16 | 221 |
| FLA | 18 | 311 | 110 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:56FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Owen Tippett, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 8:31FLAAlexander WennbergAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 10:55TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 12:54FLAAaron EkbladPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 14:55FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–4
- P3 0:54TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Andrei Vasilevskiy · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 19:00FLABrett ConnollyENAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.60 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:39TBLBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:39FLARyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:28FLABrett Connolly: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:14TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:05TBLPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:12FLAKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:55FLAEetu Luostarinen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:56TBLYanni Gourde: Holding2 min
- P3 11:05TBLBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:05FLAEetu Luostarinen: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Point3:45
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Gourde – Joseph2:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Palat – Point – Cirelli6:42
xG 0.11–0.15 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Joseph2:16
xG 0.02–0.07 (25%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Sergachev3:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Schenn2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Sergachev2:46
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg11:39
xG 0.74–0.02 (98%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Vatrano – Tippett – Luostarinen9:22
xG 0.71–0.05 (93%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Connolly – Verhaeghe – Barkov12:54
xG 0.91–0.42 (68%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Lammikko – Acciari – Lomberg7:28
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Gudas12:29
xG 1.23–0.13 (90%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Stralman – Nutivaara17:00
xG 1.03–0.28 (79%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad14:58
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).