Thu, Feb 11, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 110 | 07 | 226 |
| NSH | 18 | 17 | 18 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:58NSHRyan EllisPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 19:25DETRobby FabbriAssists: Anthony Mantha, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 19:19NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 19:33DETMarc StaalAssists: Bobby Ryan, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 19:00NSHDante FabbroGWGAssists: Luke Kunin, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:13NSHDante Fabbro: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:21DETBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:07NSHJarred Tinordi: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:17DETGivani Smith: Interference2 min
- P3 0:51NSHMikael Granlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:59DETMathias Brome: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:12DETRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:44NSHYakov Trenin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Ryan – Fabbri2:32
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Ryan – Fabbri – Smith5:02
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Larkin – Zadina – Brome7:44
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Erne – Mantha4:16
xG 0.09–0.27 (26%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Djoos4:31
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Merrill – Hronek11:13
xG 0.64–0.63 (50%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Nemeth – Djoos6:43
xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Cousins – Tolvanen9:07
xG 0.55–0.18 (76%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Jarnkrok – Granlund9:10
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Forsberg – Arvidsson – Kunin8:36
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Grimaldi – Sissons – Trenin6:10
xG 0.10–0.24 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis13:16
xG 0.94–0.18 (84%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Ellis – Tinordi2:01
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Tinordi – Fabbro11:20
xG 0.23–0.28 (46%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).