Mon, Apr 12, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 012 | 011 | 214 | 237 |
| COL | 19 | 26 | 15 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:17COLBrandon SaadAssists: Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 9:08COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 18:03COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 10:42ARIMichael BuntingPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 13:16ARIJohan LarssonAssists: Dryden Hunt, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 18:03COLMikko RantanenENAssists: Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 18:25ARIMichael Bunting: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:05ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:56COLKeaton Middleton: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:43ARIJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:21ARIConor Garland: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:49COLMikko Rantanen: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:34COLDevon Toews: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:40ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:40COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:40COLMikko Rantanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55ARIMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55COLRyan Graves: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Larsson – Hunt5:21
xG 0.95–0.05 (95%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Dvorak – Crouse7:59
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Fischer – Pederson – Keller5:09
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Bunting – Garland10:39
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Demers9:33
xG 0.64–0.03 (95%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin13:23
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun15:41
xG 0.65–0.59 (53%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Saad – Jost7:02
xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin7:58
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:12
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Compher – Bellemare5:12
xG 0.02–0.19 (10%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Toews4:48
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Girard – MacDonald2:03
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Toews – Girard10:23
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).