Sat, Feb 13, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Boston Bruins 2, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 19 | 014 | 230 |
| NYI | 215 | 015 | 212 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:41BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:36NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Ryan Pulock, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 15:16NYIJordan EberleAssists: Brock Nelson, Scott Mayfield · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 16:51BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 5:30NYIMathew BarzalPPGWGAssists: Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 14:32NYIJean-Gabriel PageauSHAssists: Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 7:47NYIAdam Pelech: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:09BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:37NYIJordan Eberle: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Bjork – DeBrusk3:01
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Smith – Coyle – DeBrusk4:48
xG 0.19–0.15 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – Bjork3:35
xG 0.07–0.14 (32%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – Smith – Ritchie7:35
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Carlo13:43
xG 0.76–0.37 (67%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Moore – McAvoy2:47
xG 0.02–0.02 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Carlo – Lauzon3:01
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Pageau – Wahlstrom10:20
xG 1.13–0.34 (77%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Eberle – Nelson – Dal Colle11:05
xG 0.86–0.15 (85%)attempts 16–3goals 1–1
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal10:59
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:20
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock14:42
xG 1.50–0.34 (82%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Greene – Dobson13:29
xG 1.11–0.34 (77%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson2:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).