Mon, Feb 15, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 6, Edmonton Oilers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 28 | 39 | 17 | 624 |
| EDM | 114 | 322 | 19 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Neal Pionk · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 11:03EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: Devin Shore, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 12:50WPGKyle ConnorUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 0:49WPGMason AppletonAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 2:31WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Kyle Connor, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 9:12EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 12:57EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Darnell Nurse, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.04 xG4–3
- P2 14:15WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Neal Pionk, Adam Lowry · Tip-in, 0.18 xG5–3
- P2 17:39EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: Tyler Ennis, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–4
- P3 2:55EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–5
- P3 6:22WPGBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.13 xG6–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:49EDMDominik Kahun: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:29WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:29EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:19EDMTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:28WPGNeal Pionk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:04WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Ehlers – Connor12:28
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Appleton12:08
xG 0.45–0.49 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Lewis – Harkins – Vesalainen6:01
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Copp12:29
xG 0.19–0.52 (26%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- DeMelo – Beaulieu8:57
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Poolman – Morrissey18:16
xG 0.68–0.79 (46%)attempts 11–22goals 3–1
- Forbort – Pionk19:03
xG 0.78–1.19 (40%)attempts 19–24goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi13:34
xG 1.18–0.38 (75%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Yamamoto4:50
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun8:04
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Ennis – Archibald – Khaira6:57
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse21:34
xG 1.05–0.62 (63%)attempts 21–18goals 2–1
- Larsson – Bouchard9:56
xG 0.61–0.35 (63%)attempts 20–6goals 1–1
- Koekkoek – Bouchard8:32
xG 0.29–0.22 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).