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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 7, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Nashville Predators 4, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)

Away

Nashville Predators

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Dallas Stars

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 80% of the time.

DAL winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NSH261707002420
DAL09012316011338

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:31NSHMikael GranlundPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Eeli Tolvanen · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–0
  2. P1 16:49NSHCalle JarnkrokUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
  3. P2 13:12NSHEeli TolvanenPPAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
  4. P3 12:30DALRadek FaksaAssists: Jason Robertson, Esa Lindell · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
  5. P3 14:46DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Denis Gurianov, Miro Heiskanen · Deflected, 0.19 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:03DALJason RobertsonAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. DAL Jason Robertson scored
  2. 2. NSH Filip Forsberg scored
  3. 3. DAL Miro Heiskanen stopped
  4. 4. NSH Ryan Johansen stopped
  5. 5. DAL Joe Pavelski stopped
  6. 6. NSH Roman Josi scored
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 9:41NSHMathieu Olivier: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 9:41DALJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 9:41NSHMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 14:36DALRadek Faksa: Boarding2 min · PPG
  5. P2 11:32NSHMatt Benning: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 11:32DALAndrew Cogliano: Roughing2 min · PPG
  7. P2 11:32DALJoel L'Esperance: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  8. P2 14:00NSHNick Cousins: Delaying game2 min
  9. P3 2:46DALDenis Gurianov: High sticking double minor4 min
  10. P3 13:16NSHRyan Johansen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  11. P3 15:27DALDenis Gurianov: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
46% to win54% to win
← NSH attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Richardson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHDAL
20Shots on goal38
1.5Expected goals3.4
41Shot attempts65
27Faceoffs won27
5Power plays3
13Penalty minutes17
18Hits18
17Blocked shots13
5Giveaways7
5Takeaways2

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.

Nashville Predators

Forward lines

  1. bestJarnkrok – Granlund – Pitlick7:53

    xG 0.21–0.08 (74%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0

  2. Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:18

    xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1

  3. Richardson – Trenin – Olivier7:06

    xG 0.06–0.40 (13%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0

  4. Cousins – Sissons – Tolvanen7:36

    xG 0.09–0.87 (10%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Borowiecki – Benning11:42

    xG 0.03–0.17 (13%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0

  2. Ekholm – Fabbro2:52

    xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0

  3. Josi – Harpur2:07

    xG 0.08–0.30 (22%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

Dallas Stars

Forward lines

  1. bestPavelski – Benn – Gurianov11:47

    xG 1.19–0.10 (92%)attempts 21–5goals 0–0

  2. Comeau – Cogliano – Dickinson2:09

    xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  3. Comeau – Faksa – Caamano6:36

    xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

  4. Cogliano – L'Esperance – Dellandrea5:41

    xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestOleksiak – Heiskanen16:38

    xG 1.49–0.27 (85%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0

  2. Pysyk – Lindell3:51

    xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0

  3. Lindell – Heiskanen4:09

    xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.4 xGNSH 1.5 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 87/100 · #113 of 868 this seasonSwing 1.86 · 6 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 45% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +49 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 80% of the time.

DAL winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).