Mon, Feb 15, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 47 | 14 | 621 |
| TBL | 16 | 314 | 011 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Erik Cernak, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 7:56FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Patric Hornqvist, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 4:59FLAOwen TippettAssists: Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 8:39FLAFrank VatranoUnassisted · Snap, 0.32 xG3–1
- P2 10:23FLAAnthony DuclairAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG4–1
- P2 11:42TBLAlexander VolkovAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P2 12:36FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–2
- P2 15:50TBLAlexander VolkovAssists: Patrick Maroon, Gemel Smith · Snap, 0.19 xG5–3
- P2 16:38TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.14 xG5–4
- P3 0:59FLAAnton StralmanAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:54TBLTyler Johnson: Holding2 min
- P1 17:48FLAKeith Yandle: Interference2 min
- P2 0:47TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:25FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P2 8:39TBLLuke Schenn: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 18:14FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:04FLACarter Verhaeghe: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:04TBLGemel Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:03TBLYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:03FLARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:17TBLGemel Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:45FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg9:40
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov11:10
xG 0.35–0.40 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Connolly – Lammikko – Lomberg8:30
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Vatrano – Tippett – Luostarinen8:17
xG 0.03–0.47 (6%)attempts 2–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Juulsen4:07
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Yandle – Stralman3:06
xG 0.09–0.19 (31%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Stralman – Weegar4:25
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 3–9goals 2–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Joseph9:13
xG 0.96–0.21 (82%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Maroon – Smith – Volkov8:32
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Point13:41
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde10:25
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta10:36
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 14–3goals 0–2
- Schenn – Sergachev6:44
xG 0.22–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hedman2:33
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).