Sun, Mar 21, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 4, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 18 | 16 | 01 | 2 | 422 |
| DAL | 211 | 111 | 07 | 01 | 1 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:02DALRhett GardnerAssists: Esa Lindell, Tanner Kero · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:21DALRadek FaksaAssists: Jason Robertson, Jamie Oleksiak · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 10:51NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Eeli Tolvanen · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 13:02DALTy DellandreaAssists: Joe Pavelski, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 17:54NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Johansen, Eeli Tolvanen · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 14:15NSHEeli TolvanenAssists: Ben Harpur · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson stopped
- 2. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 3. DAL Ty Dellandrea stopped
- 4. NSH Ryan Johansen scored
- 5. DAL Joe Pavelski scored
- 6. NSH Nick Cousins stopped
- 7. DAL John Klingberg stopped
- 8. NSH Eeli Tolvanen stopped
- 9. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 10. NSH Calle Jarnkrok scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:40DALEsa Lindell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 12:09NSHRem Pitlick: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:54DALMiro Heiskanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:19NSHRem Pitlick: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Haula – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson2:45
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Haula – Cousins – Grimaldi9:25
xG 0.21–0.22 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Olivier10:44
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Tolvanen13:17
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier20:56
xG 0.72–0.53 (58%)attempts 19–21goals 0–1
- Benning – Davies12:09
xG 0.39–0.50 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Harpur – Fabbro16:03
xG 0.30–0.90 (25%)attempts 9–17goals 1–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Gurianov – Robertson15:10
xG 0.70–0.17 (81%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Dellandrea6:48
xG 0.61–0.19 (76%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa6:46
xG 0.12–0.07 (65%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Kero – Gardner – Dellandrea3:31
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen18:51
xG 1.05–0.50 (68%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Sekera – Hanley11:39
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell16:21
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).