Tue, Feb 16, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Colorado Avalanche 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 18 | 18 | 325 |
| VGK | 07 | 112 | 110 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:08COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 16:36VGKMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Shea Theodore, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 17:39COLBrandon SaadAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Ryan Graves · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 6:52VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 19:19COLNazem KadriGWGAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:56VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:56COLDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:30VGKAlec Martinez: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:44VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:46VGKCody Glass: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:04COLJacob MacDonald: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:25COLSheldon Dries: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Nichushkin – O'Connor7:43
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – MacKinnon – Rantanen8:26
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Megna – Bellemare – Dries5:28
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Saad – MacKinnon – Rantanen3:38
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Byram4:36
xG 0.36–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Byram3:37
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Graves – MacDonald7:14
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:32
xG 0.85–0.43 (66%)attempts 13–13goals 1–2
- Tuch – Kolesar – Glass9:24
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson12:19
xG 0.73–0.62 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Roy6:21
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud12:49
xG 1.34–0.31 (81%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo17:44
xG 0.96–0.85 (53%)attempts 17–20goals 1–2
- Holden – Theodore14:20
xG 0.46–0.74 (39%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).