Thu, Feb 18, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 011 | 112 | 16 | 04 | 2 | 333 |
| PHI | 16 | 07 | 17 | 02 | 1 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59PHINicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Michael Raffl, Kevin Hayes · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 3:24NYRColin BlackwellPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Anthony Bitetto · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 8:21NYRBrendan SmithAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–1
- P3 18:46PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Kevin Hayes, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Kevin Hayes stopped
- 2. NYR Kaapo Kakko scored
- 3. PHI Sean Couturier scored
- 4. NYR Artemi Panarin scored
- 5. PHI James van Riemsdyk stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:47NYRJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:04NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:52PHIAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:52PHIRobert Hagg: Holding2 min
- P1 18:27NYRChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:28PHIKevin Hayes: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:14NYRKaapo Kakko: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:32PHIRobert Hagg: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:41PHIIvan Provorov: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 18:30NYRRyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- OT 2:22PHINolan Patrick: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Panarin – Kakko10:59
xG 0.89–0.28 (76%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Blackwell – Rooney – Lafrenière7:30
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Lemieux – Howden6:58
xG 0.10–0.12 (44%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich7:03
xG 0.04–0.15 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Smith11:03
xG 0.71–0.14 (83%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Bitetto – Hajek11:08
xG 0.18–0.18 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:47
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Andreoff – Morin – Sushko4:34
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee10:31
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Kase – Bunnaman – Patrick6:10
xG 0.00–0.14 (1%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hayes – Raffl – Aube-Kubel12:25
xG 0.52–0.71 (42%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers4:13
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Provorov – Myers9:36
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Hagg9:28
xG 0.05–0.18 (22%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).