Thu, Feb 18, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 212 | 09 | 01 | 232 |
| STL | 112 | 08 | 115 | 110 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12STLMike HoffmanPPAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, David Perron · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 8:27SJSNoah GregorAssists: Nicolas Meloche, Dylan Gambrell · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 14:31SJSJohn LeonardAssists: Ryan Donato, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 19:20STLBrayden SchennAssists: Mike Hoffman, David Perron · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
- OT 4:00STLDavid PerronPPGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Jordan Binnington · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:57STLVince Dunn: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:00SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:56SJSRyan Donato: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:14SJSTimo Meier: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:21SJSPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Meier – Leonard5:28
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Nieto – Gregor – Gambrell6:50
xG 0.29–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Marleau – Donato – Leonard5:35
xG 0.31–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Couture – Kane – Labanc11:07
xG 0.70–0.52 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClaesson – Meloche10:19
xG 0.87–0.30 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Knyzhov16:12
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro20:25
xG 0.57–1.01 (36%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestClifford – MacEachern – de la Rose5:43
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Barbashev8:58
xG 0.61–0.48 (56%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Sanford – Kyrou2:27
xG 0.02–0.02 (51%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Sanford – Blais4:51
xG 0.12–0.14 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Scandella10:51
xG 0.83–0.18 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Scandella – Faulk3:43
xG 0.07–0.12 (35%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug16:21
xG 0.81–0.88 (48%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).