Fri, Feb 19, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 7, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 413 | 112 | 214 | 739 |
| DET | 19 | 010 | 113 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:09FLAJuho LammikkoAssists: Brett Connolly, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:58FLAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 12:45FLAPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–0
- P1 14:06DETBobby RyanAssists: Robby Fabbri · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P1 15:15FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.36 xG4–1
- P2 19:38FLAAaron EkbladAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Anthony Duclair · Slap, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 2:49DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Robby Fabbri, Dylan Larkin · Deflected, 0.02 xG5–2
- P3 5:50FLAPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.49 xG6–2
- P3 8:56FLAAnthony DuclairAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.19 xG7–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:52FLAAnton Stralman: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:11FLACarter Verhaeghe: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:42DETFilip Hronek: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:38FLAAnthony Duclair: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:44DETDylan Larkin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:34FLARyan Lomberg: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov10:50
xG 1.09–0.11 (90%)attempts 13–7goals 3–0
- Vatrano – Tippett – Luostarinen9:38
xG 0.82–0.09 (91%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg9:17
xG 0.30–0.65 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Connolly – Lammikko – Lomberg11:07
xG 0.45–0.83 (35%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Forsling13:18
xG 1.52–0.50 (75%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Weegar – Ekblad15:07
xG 0.62–0.39 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 3–0
- Yandle – Gudas12:55
xG 0.63–0.66 (49%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Mantha – Larkin2:42
xG 0.35–0.04 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Nielsen – Gagner7:36
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Ryan – Fabbri – Brome4:05
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Mantha – Larkin – Zadina6:47
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 2–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Djoos4:33
xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Hronek7:37
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Merrill3:34
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).