Sat, Feb 20, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 5, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 210 | 210 | 17 | 527 |
| STL | 09 | 415 | 08 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24SJSEvander KaneAssists: Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 10:10SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Kevin Labanc · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 3:48SJSRudolfs BalcersAssists: Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.19 xG3–0
- P2 4:45STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 8:18SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 8:37STLZachary SanfordAssists: Torey Krug, Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 15:30STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Mike Hoffman, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P2 18:41STLJordan KyrouAssists: David Perron, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- P3 11:51SJSLogan CoutureGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:00SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:25SJSTimo Meier: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:58SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Interference2 min
- P3 7:58STLMike Hoffman: Embellishment2 min
- P3 15:24SJSMario Ferraro: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Meier – Balcers10:34
xG 0.63–0.10 (86%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Couture – Kane – Labanc13:15
xG 0.58–0.12 (83%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Gregor – Gambrell – Leonard5:31
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Marleau – Nieto – Donato7:45
xG 0.24–0.68 (26%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Knyzhov16:22
xG 0.83–0.36 (70%)attempts 14–12goals 3–2
- Burns – Ferraro20:22
xG 0.92–0.46 (67%)attempts 25–18goals 2–1
- Claesson – Meloche7:24
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Sundqvist – MacEachern4:44
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Clifford – Sundqvist – de la Rose2:38
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Kyrou13:50
xG 0.39–0.60 (40%)attempts 13–10goals 1–2
- Hoffman – Schenn – Sanford12:12
xG 0.16–0.69 (18%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn9:27
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Faulk – Krug17:17
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
- Gunnarsson – Scandella11:02
xG 0.39–1.29 (23%)attempts 9–19goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).