Sat, Feb 20, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Los Angeles Kings 4, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 06 | 18 | 39 | 423 |
| ARI | 09 | 19 | 16 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:37LAKAlex IafalloPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 11:48ARIDerick BrassardPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 0:52LAKTrevor MooreSHAssists: Mikey Anderson, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 9:41ARIPhil KesselPPAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 12:52LAKGabriel VilardiGWGAssists: Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 19:47LAKAlex IafalloENAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.54 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P2 3:56ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:59LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:11LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:59LAKAustin Strand: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:52ARIJohn Hayden: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 4:08ARIPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:02LAKTrevor Moore: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestAthanasiou – Amadio – Wagner9:42
xG 0.55–0.39 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Carter – Kempe – Vilardi10:11
xG 0.19–0.17 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo11:47
xG 0.07–0.17 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Moore – Lizotte9:54
xG 0.17–0.41 (30%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson16:49
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Maatta – Strand10:13
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Roy – Bjornfot15:21
xG 0.10–0.75 (11%)attempts 5–22goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Garland – Keller11:15
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 12–2goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Dvorak – Crouse9:21
xG 0.19–0.10 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Caggiula9:01
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Larsson – Hayden – Fischer7:20
xG 0.32–0.51 (39%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Oesterle13:10
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin9:55
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun16:27
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).