Tue, Feb 23, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 2, Detroit Red Wings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 010 | 214 | 233 |
| DET | 08 | 05 | 011 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 4:36NSHFilip ForsbergPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 9:57NSHEeli TolvanenPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:42DETJon Merrill: Interference2 min
- P2 5:54DETAdam Erne: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:38NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min
- P3 4:19DETVladislav Namestnikov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:02DETPatrik Nemeth: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Jarnkrok – Grimaldi12:47
xG 0.71–0.23 (76%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Granlund – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:16
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Johansen – Cousins – Tolvanen9:14
xG 0.56–0.16 (77%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Haula – Sissons – Kunin9:30
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Fabbro15:19
xG 1.10–0.34 (76%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis18:43
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Benning13:06
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Nielsen – Namestnikov6:22
xG 0.33–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Fabbri – Zadina7:33
xG 0.05–0.07 (39%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Fabbri – Zadina4:00
xG 0.04–0.08 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin12:58
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Hronek13:58
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Merrill13:04
xG 0.16–0.77 (17%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Djoos10:26
xG 0.27–1.16 (19%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).