Tue, Feb 23, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 4, Ottawa Senators 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 28 | 112 | 03 | 0 | 436 |
| OTT | 214 | 119 | 14 | 02 | 2 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Derek Stepan, Artem Zub · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:57OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 16:03MTLShea WeberAssists: Jake Evans, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 3:41OTTErik BrannstromPPAssists: Colin White, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 4:52MTLJonathan DrouinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 10:06MTLShea WeberAssists: Phillip Danault, Brett Kulak · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 8:06MTLTyler ToffoliAssists: Phillip Danault, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 10:11OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Josh Norris, Thomas Chabot · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. OTT Brady Tkachuk stopped
- 2. MTL Corey Perry stopped
- 3. OTT Tim Stützle scored
- 4. MTL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 5. OTT Josh Norris scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:32MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Charging2 min · PPG
- P1 11:28OTTDrake Batherson: Interference2 min
- P1 13:56OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:56MTLBen Chiarot: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:59MTLShea Weber: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 17:39OTTThomas Chabot: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:29OTTJosh Norris: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Gallagher – Danault11:01
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki11:21
xG 0.46–0.45 (50%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Tatar – Armia – Kotkaniemi10:50
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Perry – Byron – Evans7:33
xG 0.14–0.23 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Romanov8:25
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Petry – Edmundson13:04
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Weber – Chiarot10:54
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Paul – White2:29
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Haley – Watson – Tierney3:41
xG 0.04–0.06 (42%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Paul – White7:56
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Tierney – Batherson – Stützle5:07
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Brannstrom9:56
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Reilly3:09
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Reilly – Zub11:39
xG 0.26–0.48 (36%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).