Wed, Feb 24, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 110 | 18 | 327 |
| PHI | 215 | 214 | 010 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:48PHIErik GustafssonAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 9:32NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–1
- P1 15:31PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 4:05PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Joel Farabee, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 8:03NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 14:37PHIKevin HayesGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Philippe Myers · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 3:27NYRChris KreiderAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Colin Blackwell · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:31NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:28PHISean Couturier: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:13NYRJonny Brodzinski: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:20PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Holding2 min
- P2 2:54NYRBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:11NYRJulien Gauthier: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:33NYRPavel Buchnevich: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:31PHIConnor Bunnaman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:37NYRRyan Lindgren: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:29PHICarsen Twarynski: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:15PHIJoel Farabee: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:22NYRAnthony Bitetto: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:51NYRPavel Buchnevich: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Blackwell – Strome8:37
xG 1.02–0.47 (68%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Lemieux – Gauthier – Howden4:23
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Lafrenière6:17
xG 0.07–0.48 (13%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Brodzinski – Rooney8:03
xG 0.02–0.66 (3%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren9:32
xG 1.16–0.30 (79%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Smith10:43
xG 0.87–0.37 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Smith – Bitetto2:05
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Hayes – Patrick9:07
xG 0.70–0.13 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee7:59
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Andreoff – Morin – Twarynski4:10
xG 0.01–0.27 (2%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman9:23
xG 0.35–0.69 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Provorov8:34
xG 0.94–0.15 (86%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Hagg7:21
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Gustafsson3:20
xG 0.02–0.21 (9%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).