Thu, Feb 25, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Boston Bruins 2, New York Islanders 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 115 | 113 | 08 | 236 |
| NYI | 210 | 09 | 518 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02BOSNick RitchieAssists: Jakub Zboril, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 3:16NYIAdam PelechUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 12:39NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Nick Leddy, Semyon Varlamov · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 11:36BOSCraig SmithAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Urho Vaakanainen · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 5:41NYIAnthony BeauvillierGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–3
- P3 10:45NYIJordan EberleAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 12:24NYIJean-Gabriel PageauSHAssists: Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–5
- P3 14:44NYIAnders LeeAssists: Noah Dobson, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–6
- P3 16:33NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Ryan Pulock, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–7
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:01NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:11BOSCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:04NYICasey Cizikas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:53BOSTrent Frederic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:53BOSTrent Frederic: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Coyle – Ritchie10:54
xG 1.04–0.44 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Bjork – DeBrusk – Studnicka8:33
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:33
xG 0.60–0.50 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Wagner – Kuraly – Frederic8:30
xG 0.45–0.61 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestZboril – Carlo17:15
xG 1.19–0.94 (56%)attempts 18–17goals 1–2
- Moore – Clifton14:22
xG 0.81–0.72 (53%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- McAvoy – Vaakanainen16:23
xG 0.54–0.77 (41%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas2:55
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal11:28
xG 1.03–0.84 (55%)attempts 15–11goals 3–1
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier13:18
xG 0.36–0.54 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Komarov – Pageau – Wahlstrom4:48
xG 0.12–0.37 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock13:20
xG 0.96–0.66 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Leddy – Mayfield15:56
xG 0.81–0.67 (55%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Greene – Pulock2:29
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).