Thu, Feb 25, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 011 | 26 | 228 |
| WSH | 112 | 014 | 49 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:20WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Nick Jensen · Snap, 0.26 xG0–1
- P3 3:18WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Lars Eller, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 4:22PITBrandon TanevSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 7:22PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 12:40WSHTom WilsonPPGWGAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 18:38WSHCarl HagelinENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.71 xG2–4
- P3 19:08WSHLars EllerENAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:40WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:27WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P2 4:03WSHJohn Carlson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:09PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:36WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:32PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:53PITDrew O'Connor: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Sceviour – Jankowski – O'Connor5:32
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rust – Aston-Reese11:04
xG 0.56–0.67 (45%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Kapanen9:56
xG 0.43–0.62 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Blueger – Lafferty – Tanev11:09
xG 0.51–0.72 (41%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Letang – Joseph10:45
xG 0.53–0.64 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Ceci – Pettersson11:03
xG 0.58–0.75 (44%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
- Matheson – Marino16:40
xG 0.46–1.04 (31%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary10:55
xG 0.95–0.47 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Wilson – Vrana9:11
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Oshie – Eller – Panik11:06
xG 0.44–0.38 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway5:48
xG 0.07–0.23 (24%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Orlov17:00
xG 1.38–0.45 (75%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- Chara – Jensen8:56
xG 0.74–0.28 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Carlson – Dillon14:19
xG 0.27–0.72 (27%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).