Thu, Feb 25, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 113 | 012 | 07 | 132 |
| TBL | 06 | 18 | 28 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:23CARBrett PesceAssists: Jesper Fast, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 12:39TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 6:22TBLYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 18:44TBLBarclay GoodrowENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:44CARDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
- P1 14:31CARBrett Pesce: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:07TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:20CARJordan Staal: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:36TBLPatrick Maroon: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:59TBLJan Rutta: Holding2 min
- P2 9:16CARMartin Necas: Holding2 min
- P2 16:46TBLOndrej Palat: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:28CARSteven Lorentz: Interference2 min
- P3 7:48CARJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:48TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:48TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFast – Aho – Svechnikov8:19
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
- Martinook – Paquette – Lorentz7:19
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Staal – McGinn – Foegele7:10
xG 0.48–0.37 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Necas7:48
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce11:07
xG 0.83–0.45 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Fleury – Bean4:17
xG 0.35–0.02 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin9:41
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Goodrow – Gourde – Joseph8:08
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Palat – Coleman – Point7:28
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Johnson9:23
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Maroon – Smith – Volkov7:52
xG 0.07–0.64 (10%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sergachev – Foote6:14
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta5:28
xG 0.27–0.26 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak4:05
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).